Resolution criteria

This is a DATE market. It will resolve to the decade on which a sovereign, unified federal state representing a significant majority of African nations (at least 28 sovereign states, or more than half of the African Union's membership) officially comes into existence.

To trigger a positive resolution, the newly formed entity must:

• Be established as a single, sovereign federal state (with a unified government, constitution, and legal personality) rather than a loose intergovernmental organization like the current African Union.

• Be officially established under the name "United States of Africa" or another name explicitly representing a unified African federal state.

• Have its unifying treaty or constitution officially enter into force.

The resolution date will be the date of the formal entry into force of the establishing treaty or constitution.

If no such federation is established before the market's close date, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

The concept of a "United States of Africa" dates back to Marcus Garvey’s 1924 poem "Hail, United States of Africa". It was later championed by pan-African leaders such as Kwame Nkrumah (the first President of Ghana) in the 1950s and 1960s, and more recently by former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in the late 1990s and 2000s.

While the African Union (AU) was launched in 2002 to foster greater political and economic integration across its 55 member states, it remains an intergovernmental union of sovereign nations rather than a single federal state. Although the AU's Agenda 2063 outlines plans for a highly integrated continent, there is currently no finalized timeline or treaty for the transition of the AU into a singular sovereign federation.