Helmsman's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.73
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Helmsman bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- 14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?NOṀ1,250
- Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?YESṀ1,000
- Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?YESṀ1,000
90%
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ1,000
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ500
- 23. Will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges in 2023?YESṀ500
95%
97%