Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Ukraine and the European Union (or its member states) officially sign an EU accession treaty on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC.

The market resolves to NO if no such treaty has been signed by the deadline.

Key details:

• Signing vs. Ratification: The criteria only require the formal signing of the treaty of accession by authorized representatives of Ukraine and the European Union. Subsequent ratification by individual EU member state parliaments or a Ukrainian referendum is not required for a YES resolution.

• Sources: Resolution will be determined using official statements from the European Council or the European Commission, or consistent reporting from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg).

Background

Ukraine officially applied for EU membership in February 2022 and was granted candidate status in June 2022. Accession negotiations formally commenced in June 2024. By July 2026, Ukraine had opened negotiations on two out of six thematic clusters (the "Fundamentals" cluster and the "External Relations" cluster).

While Ukrainian officials have aimed to finalize negotiations and sign an accession treaty by 2027, many EU leaders and experts caution that the path to full integration remains highly complex, requiring unanimous agreement across all EU member states on 33 negotiating chapters.

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