Will the U.S. inflation be 3.08% or less in November 2023?
42
328
790
resolved Dec 12
Resolved
NO

U.S. inflation from December 2022 to November 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%, 3.6997%, 3.24%, 3.137%

Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.08% or less in November 2023?

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.8804988)

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ2,117
2Ṁ439
3Ṁ201
4Ṁ122
5Ṁ88
Sort by:
predicted NO

YO THE GUY WHO CONVINCED ME TO CANCEL MY LIMIT ORDER IN THE COMMENTS DELETED HIS ACCOUNT

bought Ṁ162 of NO

The latest numbers were released at 8:30am ET today and the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI for November is 3.14%.

The index value for November is 307.051.

This market can be resolved to no now.

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

Pinging the creator: @XComhghall, resolves NO

predicted YES

Here’s to having an edge on what the CPI is gonna be.

I’ve been driving down the numbers for 6 months now. Prepare for lower interest rates folks!

predicted YES

@AaronBreckenridge honest question. What are the guardrails for field representatives to not lie?

predicted YES

@MP No idea. Felony?

predicted YES

My rep records exactly what I tell him and it’s very very scripted and recorded. Takes about an hour every 3 months. Super fucking boring actually.

predicted YES

@AaronBreckenridge lol. I mean, you might have said: I work with an app and I need to take a photo of the billboard that says how much a haircut costs in the 5 barber shops I frequent with a certain periodicity.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Surprisingly low Unemployment + forecast of 3.1% = way less than 75% chance on this market.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Panfilo Got a big No order at 50% for those who disagree!

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@Panfilo Unemployment rate has no (short-term) effect on inflation. Nowcast still at 3.04%

sold Ṁ0 of NO

@MParedis We’ll see! Removed the limit order on your advice but I’m seeing conflicting material.

predicted NO

@MParedis Putting you on my "never trust" list :(