Will Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential election before 11/5/2024?
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Nov 8
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Will Joe Biden announce to suspend his candidacy or campaign for the 2024 presidential election before the election date, 11/5/2024?

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Does this resolve YES if he dies before then?

@YaakovSaxon And does this resolve YES if he is simply defeated for the nomination?

If he never announces to suspend his candidacy or campaign, and dies, it resolves to NO.

If he announces to suspend his candidacy or campaign after being defeated, it resolves to YES.

If he does not announce to suspend his candidacy or campaign, it resolves to NO.

The market description seems to imply that if Biden never announces that he’s running, then this will resolve NO, right?

predicts NO

@JoshuaB Seems to me it should resolve N/A, since there never was a candidacy or campaign to suspend?

@NcyRocks If Biden never announces to run (regardless of this), or to suspend his candidacy or campaign (this is the criterion), the market will resolve to NO.

I cannot stop beating my children if I never beat them in the first place, or if I don't have children at all, in which case it is correct to say that I do not stop beating my children.

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