Will Google Bard become better than GPT-4 at any point before September 2024?
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resolved Dec 6
Resolved
YES

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predicted YES

This should not be resolved yet. Bard is using Pro, which is maybe slightly better than GPT-3.5. Pro is not even competitive with GPT-4

predicted NO

@derpy153 signal boosting this, I completely agree.

predicted NO

I don’t think this is YES yet. Today’s update to Bard uses the Pro model, which is not better than GPT-4. Google has promised the GPT-4 Ultra model will be in Bard, but that hasn’t happened yet.

predicted YES

@Tossup I bet YES, but I agree that this should not resolve quite yet. Google reports that it's better than GPT-4, but we need independent confirmation.

predicted YES

Why has this resolved already?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

is this going to include 'google bard advanced', or not?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Both Google Bard and ChatGPT-4 are powerful conversational AI tools that excel in different areas. Bard outperforms ChatGPT-4 when it comes to human-like response, user-friendliness of the interface, and real-time access to the internet. However, ChatGPT4 has an advantage in text-processing tasks like summarization and paragraph writing. While Bard’s responses aim for ultra-authenticity, it still falls short in terms of hallucination or generating fake news. Moreover, access to ChatGPT4 is limited and comes at a cost, whereas Bard is free for all. But just having a free access does not mean that it is better.
https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2023/05/chatgpt-4-v-s-google-bard-a-head-to-head-comparison/

@WyattStanke Should this be closed already? It seems like it would be more interesting to leave it open until the close date.

predicted YES

@EvanDaniel September 2024

Almost a year from now...

predicted NO

@oh The thing is, GPT 4 is a specific LLM but Google Bard is an interface that has switched LLMs in the past, so this question is comparing apples to oranges.

predicted YES

Why does this market close in 2 days?

What if a Google LLM not under the Bard brand becomes better?

@NunyaBidness Never thought about that. I guess it will be any Google LLM.

@WyattStanke that's an important information for betting on the market. Better add it in the description or title. 🙏🏼

@WyattStanke please update title and description

How will you resolve this?

@4mur1c4 HellaSwag benchmark

@WyattStanke please link in description

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