Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?

Hedging my personal preferences, because I would really like videos on prediction markets / forecasting / etc institutional decisionmaking topics to do well!

bought Ṁ50 of NO

The channel had a recent-ish video on prediction markets, and it was one of the least popular videos on the channel. Still below 50k views after more than a year. Doesn't bode well.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@jonsimon The existing video is one of the older ones. It seems to me the channel has grown a lot since then. And I expect the quality (initial hook) to be a lot better. Also 18 months is a long time, plenty of chances for going viral (e.g. a single famous person joins manifold and links the explainer).

Not sure about an exact number, I'd put this at 75% maybe?

bought Ṁ75 of YES

@jonsimon this argument doesn't hold up, in my opinion. the rational animations team has been KILLING it with their thumbnails/titles recently, and the videos title is hardly as agressive and attention-grabbing as it could be. the subject matter (potentially being able to make money betting on current events) is compelling, the stories and ideas those involved in pushing for them (such as assassination markets and other risks of goal-setting) are going to be engaging and prompt a more than decent amount of discussion, and assuming they put even a fraction of the animation budget of, say, the goddess of everything else into it, it will be incredibly entertaining simply watching their characters demonstrate these concepts.

bought Ṁ80 of NO

About half the videos pass 200k views, and the one video about prediction markets is one of the less-viewed videos on the channel. There is some upwards drift over time, but this still seems like it should be in the neighborhood of 50%, not 75%.

Why are you doing one about manifold markets. I kinda feel like manifold is actually just an embarassing toy for nerds, today. The lack of futures trading means that its long-term predictions can't be taken seriously. It's not even useful for holding pundits accountable, since it doesn't make the quality of their betting history legible to the public (and isn't that kind of baked into its business model? a business model that is so embarrassing that I feel like I shouldn't fully explain this here).

predicts YES

@makoyass the telephone started out as a cool toy for rich ppl 😉

@AndyMac Okay, you asked for it. This seems like a dogshit analogy to me, because there was never a stage in the development of the telephone when it was failing to provide any of its purported benefits, with no hope for improvement on the horizon (futures trading is, on gloss, dependent on the legalization of prediction markets), while being funded by addicts.

predicts YES

@makoyass okay then dont use it, it's not hard 😂

@AndyMac No, it's fun.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

The lack of futures trading means that its long-term predictions can't be taken seriously

I don’t understand why, I think the loan system solve it in the best way.

> since it doesn't make the quality of their betting history legible to the public

I think it does, first if they bet incorrectly, they lost profit, and second you can look at their calibration (even if the system should probably be improved).
Also you can look at their history.

I think the real problem is about the quality of markets. There is a lot of non-predictive or predictive but mostly useless markets, and also a lot of market with unclear resolution criteria.

And a lot of the non predictive markets earn a lot of attention, because it is much simpler to bet on them, than to actually have some knowledge about a real subject.
Also the incentive aren’t completely right, they push more toward quantity than quality.

predicts NO

I still think manifold market is great. Also it seems to be improving quickly.

@dionisos I think the loan system addresses it, but I don't know how well. Why do you think it's the best way?

predicts NO

@makoyass I mean, it is the best way I know. It is probably not the best way possibles, but I think it is still high in the set of all possible solutions.

It has some really cool properties :
- It is really simple (it is hard to do better than that, on this dimension)
- It works really well, it reduces all long term markets to only some month (in term of how long the mana is blocked)
- I still didn’t see any bad unintended consequences of this system.
- It makes everyone always having some of mana to bet with, even if they spent everything. And I think it is good to keep people interested in the system (the bonus do that too, but the loan do that in a way which are less costly, and more durable).

predicts NO

@makoyass they are surviving on grants. yes their business model is basically nonexistent. i honestly don't know what they're planning with that one lol

@makoyass Now that the video is out I feel like they addressed this concern successfully in the general tone, by acknowledging how silly, playful, and experimental manifold is. It was a great video, their best! (I guess I still don't know exactly why they made it though)

idk what you're covering but I'm excited! Happy to do any interviewing if that's a thing you want

bought Ṁ35 of YES

Using the DMT channel estimator tool, it looks like Rational Animations gets around 166K views on a video in the first 30 days, so assuming this video is released even 15 days before 12/31 this is an easy YES