Writer's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Writer bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
10%
- Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?NOṀ50
- Will Twitter stop functioning before Dec 1 2022 (95% or more uptime with full functionality)NOṀ10
- Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?NOṀ10
- Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?NOṀ10
- Will r/EffectiveAltruism surpass 22,000 subscribers by Nov 20, 2022?NOṀ10
20%
30%
40%
- Will Twitter survive the World Cup (no major outage from Nov 20 to Dec 18) ?YESṀ25
- Will at least 30 users bet in this market from Discord?NOṀ10
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
- Will Avraham Eisenberg be released on bail before January 3rd 2023?NOṀ10
- Will Manifold hit 5,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?NOṀ10
- Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?NOṀ2
50%
- Will anyone go 'Goblin Mode' on Manifold before the end of 2022?YESṀ10
- Will I catch up on all my homework by the end of the calendar year?NOṀ10
- Will Microstrategy sell any Bitcoin? (By 2026)YESṀ10
- Will the winner of the world cup come from Europe?NOṀ10
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ1 per person.NOṀ1
60%
- Will Bitcoin close the year above $15,000?YESṀ10
- Are markets about the number of followers here, just a way to get more followers?YESṀ10
- Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?NOṀ10
- @IsaacKing and @DesTiny together manipulated @DesTiny's personal goal market to earn Ṁ16,000 profit. Will there be a comment about this market manipulation on 10 or more of @DesTiny's market before Jan 31st?NOṀ10
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
- Will SBF make a tweet before Dec 13, 2022 11:59pm ET?YESṀ10
- Will I be able to go one day without swearing in this upcoming week?YESṀ10
- @IsaacKing and @DesTiny together manipulated @DesTiny's personal goal market to earn Ṁ16,000 profit. Will there be a comment about this market manipulation on 10 or more of @IsaacKing's market before Jan 31st?NOṀ10
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ10
70%
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
- Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?NOṀ10
- Will Manifold hit 2,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?YESṀ10
- Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be reinstated by the end of 2022YESṀ10
- Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be reinstated by the end of 2022YESṀ10
- Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?YESṀ4
80%
- Will the responder one-box in this Transparent Newcomb's Paradox?YESṀ50
- Will the responder one-box in this Transparent Newcomb's Paradox?YESṀ30
- Will Bitcoin close the year above $15,000?YESṀ10
- Will Bitcoin close the year above $15,000?YESṀ10
- Will Bitcoin close the year above $15,000?YESṀ10
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?YESṀ10
- "Change My Mind" markets are just a waste of time and manaYESṀ10
- Will I work out in the gym before I head home for winter break?YESṀ10
- Will Gemini Earn default in 2022?YESṀ10
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?YESṀ10
90%
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ50 per person.YESṀ50
- Poll: Reinstate former President TrumpYESṀ35
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ30 per person.YESṀ30
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ20 per person.YESṀ20
- AI: 1400 SAT by 2025YESṀ10
- Will GPT-4 be released before May 1st, 2023?YESṀ10
- Will I correctly set up and resolve my first market accurately?YESṀ10
- Will "Elden Ring" win Game of the Year?YESṀ10
- Will PredictIt still be operating markets in March 2023?YESṀ10
95%
- Will the Manifold logo change back by the end of January?YESṀ500
- Will this Market have more than 25 positions by 15th march 6pm GMT? YESṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ40 per person.YESṀ40
- Will @Tetraspace be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?YESṀ10
- Will this market have at least 10 unique traders within 24 hours?YESṀ10
- This market resolves YES if there are 100+ unique traders by time of closing March 1st.YESṀ10
97%
- Will EAG: Bay Area happen as we expect?YESṀ900
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
- Will r/GiftofGames get 137,000 subscribers by Nov 30th, 2022?NOṀ10
99%
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?YESṀ1,800
- Will the total volume of this market by Isaac King be above 200,000Ṁ?YESṀ900
- 24. Will >66% US population be fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID by the end of 2022?YESṀ100
- Will the sun rise tomorrow?YESṀ10
- [English] I'm auctioning away Ṁ1000. Will the highest bid be at least Ṁ500?YESṀ10