Will I get a 4 or better on my AP US History Exam?
34
141
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resolved Jul 5
Resolved
NO

In about two weeks I have to take my AP US History final to see if I get any college credit. Will I get a 4 or higher on the exam?

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

you know what, i’ll take it

predicted NO

@Wobbles sorry to all the yessers

predicted YES

@Wobbles Nooooooo

predicted NO
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Taking into account the stats @duck_master highlighted and the fact you made a prediction market about it, I’m optimistic.

predicted NO

someone message me on discord so i remember to resolve this on the 5th

bought Ṁ20 of NO

going based off base rates… but good luck + prove me wrong!

@Wobbles how have you done in other classes or tests?

(From https://apstudents.collegeboard.org/about-ap-scores/score-distributions the base rate is 10.8% + 15.6% = 26.4% which is pretty low.)

predicted NO

@duck_master oh damn that's pretty low. Well since I've already taken the test I'd say there is a 50/50 chance I get a 4, I feel like I did pretty well

bought Ṁ5 of YES

How’ve you been practicing?

predicted NO

@Conflux There are review videos that I've been using

predicted YES

@Wobbles How many practice tests have you done?

predicted NO

@Conflux uhhhh, 0

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@Wobbles uh you should change that

predicted NO
predicted NO

@Wobbles find some online and do them!

predicted NO

@Conflux I can chat with you about your strengths and weaknesses maybe

predicted NO

@Conflux sounds like a good idea