# Wobbles's calibration

Grade: A-, Score: -0.63

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Wobbles bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

1%

3%

5%

- If you see this market in an ad, please bet YES. If you see it elsewhere, please bet NO.NOṀ100
- By the end of 2023, will any real-world event have had at least 50 different Manifold markets about it with near-identical resolution criteria?NOṀ50
- Will the United States make it through to the Quarter-finals in the 2022 FIFA World Cup?NOṀ25

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

97%