# William Ehlhardt's calibration

Grade: A+, Score: -0.08

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when William Ehlhardt bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

- COVID-19 Pandemic: Will the United States of America (USA) record one million (1,000,000) deaths directly attributable to SARS-COV-2 infection by May 22, 2022?YESṀ200
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022YESṀ100
- Will exactly 11 people attend Spencer's billion second party?YESṀ100

97%