When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 4th badge (Rainbow Badge) from Erika?
When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 4th badge (Rainbow Badge) from Erika?
16
300Ṁ10762026
1.7%
February 2025
2%
March 2025
5%
April 2025
8%
May 2025
8%
June 2025
5%
July 2025
5%
August 2025
5%
September 2025
5%
October 2025
5%
November 2025
5%
December 2025
45%
Not in 2025
Claude 3.7 is playing Pokemon Red! You can follow along it's progress. Internally, it's gotten as far as the Thunder Badge, but this is a slightly different harness.
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This market resolves based on what happens on stream, however it happens. If an admin intervenes and helps, I think that'd be sad, but so be it. If they restart its progress, so be it.
In Pacific Time if it matters.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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