Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if at least two of the remaining four matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are decided by a penalty shootout (kicks from the penalty mark). It will resolve to NO if one or zero of these matches require a penalty shootout to determine the winner.
The four remaining matches to be considered are:
Semifinal 1: France vs. Spain (July 14, 2026)
Semifinal 2: England vs. Argentina (July 15, 2026)
Third-Place Play-off: Loser Semifinal 1 vs. Loser Semifinal 2 (July 18, 2026)
Final: Winner Semifinal 1 vs. Winner Semifinal 2 (July 19, 2026)
A "penalty shootout" is strictly defined as the post-extra-time tiebreaker used to determine which team advances or wins the match. Penalties awarded during regulation time (90 minutes) or extra time (30 minutes) do not qualify.
Resolution will be determined using official match reports from the official FIFA website or reputable sports news aggregators like ESPN.
Background
As of July 13, 2026, the 2026 FIFA World Cup has reached the semifinal stage, with only four teams remaining: France, Spain, England, and Argentina.
Interestingly, none of the four quarterfinal matchups were decided by a penalty shootout. Spain beat Belgium in regulation, France defeated Morocco in regulation, while both England (against Norway) and Argentina (against Switzerland) won their matches in extra time without needing a shootout. According to FIFA knockout stage rules, if any of the remaining four matches are tied after 90 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes of extra time, they will proceed directly to a penalty shootout to determine the winner.
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1,000