Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official results of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which concludes in July 2026.

• YES resolves if at least one team from a confederation other than UEFA (Europe) or CONMEBOL (South America) qualifies for the 2026 World Cup Semifinals. This includes teams representing:

  • CONCACAF (North, Central America, and Caribbean)

  • CAF (Africa)

  • AFC (Asia)

  • OFC (Oceania)

• NO resolves if all four semifinalists are members of UEFA and/or CONMEBOL.

The semifinalists are defined as the four teams that win their respective Quarterfinal matches and advance to the Semifinal round (scheduled for July 14 and July 15, 2026).

The primary source of truth will be the official tournament bracket and match reports on the FIFA Official Website or FOX Sports World Cup Bracket.

Background

Historically, teams from outside UEFA and CONMEBOL have rarely reached the final four of the FIFA World Cup. Prior to 2026, the only teams to achieve this feat were the United States (1930), South Korea (2002), and Morocco (2022).

The 2026 edition of the tournament is the first to feature an expanded format of 48 teams, resulting in increased slot allocations for confederations outside of Europe and South America (specifically CAF, AFC, and CONCACAF, which also features three host nations: the United States, Mexico, and Canada).

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