WXTJ's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.07
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when WXTJ bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?NOṀ500
- PAW9: Innovation prizes to spur breakthroughs in bottleneck technologies for farmed animal welfareNOṀ35
- Will the U.K. Conservative Party lose at least three parliamentary seats in by-elections in 2023?YESṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%