Note (7/3/2023): Many reports are saying Donald Trump plans to skip the first Republican presidential debate, if this happens the August debate does not count for this market as long as he remains top 2 in polling.
Original Market Rules / Description---
Some context:
For the 2016 cycle, the first primary debate was held by the Republicans on August 6, 2015.
For the 2020 cycle, the first primary debate was held by the Democrats on June 26, 2019.
Will ANY party have a Presidential debate for the 2024 cycle before September 1 2023?
IMPORTANT: To be considered a debate for the purposes of this market, the debate MUST include the top two candidates by polling who have actually declared.
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As of 7/3/2023, this would require either Trump and DeSantis to attend the same debate or RFK JR and Biden to attend the same debate.
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I will take the most recent poll from 538 sorting for C+ or higher at some point on the day of the debate. Polls with major candidates purposefully excluded will be avoided.
The debate doesn't have to be approved by the parties themselves but it does have to be available live through one of the following: ABC, FOX, NBC (locals, but available nationwide) or CNN, FOX NEWS, MSNBC (national). YouTuber held debates, should that be a thing (or some other platform), don't count unless they have the official endorsement of the party. In-person forums without live coverage don't count.
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The RNC has announced that their first debate will take place in August. Remember, the top two candidates by polling on the day of that debate must take the stage for the purposes of this market. Since this debate is officially endorsed and organized by the RNC, the channel requirements do not apply however it can’t be a taped only/in-person only event (unlikely).