Milorad Dodik's separatist actions have raised concerns about potential renewed ethnic tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This market resolves YES if there is an outbreak of armed conflict (defined as organized armed violence resulting in at least 25 casualties) in Bosnia and Herzegovina before September 1, 2025. It resolves NO if no such conflict occurs by that date.

Resolution source: Reports from https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/03/17/republika-srpska-the-next-potential-flashpoint-in-europe/ or other reputable international news sources.