Will Edge Esmeralda have greater attendance YoY every year until 2030?
Basic
4
Ṁ55
2031
34%
chance

Edge Esmeralda is a yearly "pop up village" in Sonoma Country, that is part of the "Esmeralda" new city project. The intent is to slowly iterate a larger and larger group, so that they can bootstrap into the new city they're trying to form. A premise there is that the Edge Esmeralda event will continue to be popular/successful. This question is intended to measure whether one expects them to maintain momentum/interest.

## Resolution Details:
City Formation:
If Esmeralda forms and has >15 permanent residents before 2030, and Edge Esmeralda is cancelled as a result, this question will resolve n/a.

Acts of God Exception:
In resolving this question, years which have reduced attendance due to "acts of god" are excluded. These include but are not limited to: fire, earthquake, pandemic.

Rebrand:
If Edge Esmeralda rebrands, whatever new organization exists to replace them will still count for this question. I will use personally judgement in unclear cases.

Change in format:
If Edge Esmeralda becomes an event with a substantively different format, e.g. virtual, I will resolve this question as "no". This will be resolved as to my judgment with regards to the spirit of this question, which is whether the yearly event is building towards a permanent city.

Multiple events:
If the event occurs more than once in a single year, I will take the sum of both events for attendance.

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