Resolves yes if any person achieves a successful Speedrun of Totk (any version) with a time that is less than 46 minutes by July 31, 2023.
Only verified runs accepted by the speedrunning community (e.g. on a site like speedrunning.com) will count.
NOTE: if there is a community consensus to start runs after (some of) the initial cutscenes (as is currently being discussed), I will re-time the WR run according to the rules at market creation time.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ160 | |
| 2 | Ṁ67 | |
| 3 | Ṁ25 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
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@chrisjbillington waiting for it to show up verified on speedrunning.com. In the meantime:
https://manifold.markets/VitorBosshard/will-anyone-reach-a-sub4530-any-spe
@VitorBosshard Regarding “NOTE: if there is a community consensus to start runs after (some of) the initial cutscenes (as is currently being discussed), I will re-time the WR run according to the rules at market creation time.”
Can you say a bit more about how you’re planning to do this? Intro skip was decided on. If you re-time an intro skip run according to rules at market creation time, the resulting re-time will say that the run is invalid because they skip the intro. The top runners are almost all going to do intro skip from now on, so even though I think it’s likely we’ll see sub 46, it’s unlikely we’ll see a run that does the intro that is sub 46.
However, I see that you’ve been selling your NO position, so it seems like that’s not how you’re interpreting it.
@JimHays intro skip had already been decided on at market creation, so I think this isn't a problem.
@chrisjbillington Ah, yep. Looks like they announced the ruling July 3 and market was created July 4
@JimHays By "retiming" I meant calculating what time the run would have been if it had watched the intro. As it turns out, the community has decided to add 6:40 to the runs that do intro skip, so the resulting time is still comparable with those under previous rules. That means I don't have to do anything special to resolve the market.
@Lorxus Description already says: “Resolves yes if any person achieves a successful Speedrun of Totk (any version)”