The Final Outcome of the Marcos Jr. Presidency
0
7752028
50%
Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.
50%
Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.
50%
Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.
50%
Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.
50%
Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.
50%
Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.
50%
Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.
50%
Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.
50%
Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.
50%
Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.
50%
Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.
50%
Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.
50%
Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.
50%
Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.
50%
Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.
50%
Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).
50%
Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.
50%
Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.
50%
Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.
50%
Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.
Market Resolution Criteria
Resolution Date: The market will resolve on June 30, 2028, or immediately upon the first occurrence of an early termination (Options 11 through 20).
Exclusivity: Only one of the options can resolve as TRUE (100%).
Source: Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Philippine government (Malacañang Palace) or verified, authoritative reporting from major international or domestic news outlets.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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