On January 25's edition of the Ezra Klein Show, guest Simon Rosenberg said, "If we run a good campaign, and execute well, I think we're (Biden) going to win this election by high single digits."
I will judge this market by the national popular vote for the presidential race. "High single digits" will mean >7% and <10%. I will use reporting from the Associated Press to determine the margin, and will close this market once the answer is clear (the number of outstanding votes < the margin needed to determine the answer). I will not account for whether Biden runs a good campaign or executes well. The electoral college results will not factor in here, so if Biden wins the popular vote by 8% and somehow still loses the election, this will resolve as Y.
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@wilsonkime Nope. I won't factor in the electoral college results at all.
I would hope somebody with a 7+% margin would win the ec... but we live in strange times.
@BrunoParga This is not about slightly overestimating Biden though. Winning popular vote by that margin last happened in 2008, before that ‘96. So it seems quite unusual to me anyway. But we’re betting on only one of them here, so that makes it even less likely.