Conditions

Gpt-5: There is a chance that OpenAI's next flagship model will have a different name. What this market is substantively meant to measure is whether investors are excited or disappointed by OpenAI's progress, so if there is a GPT-5-level release with a different name, I will use the performance of Microsoft's stock after that release date regardless of the name. If there are reasonable questions over whether a release is "GPT-5 with a different name" I will use a manifold poll to resolve this.

Launch: I will consider a launch to be a formal unveiling of capabilities. Rumors/leaks don't count. It will need to meet the following conditions

1. I'll expect a presentation with Sam and/or Satya, or at the very least a paper talking about all the benchmarks it crushes.

2. Access given to the public, or at least journalists/privileged outsiders. We need somebody who doesn't work at OpenAI or Microsoft able to use the model and give their honest opinion to the public.

Stock price: If GPT-5 is released during the trading day, I will use the closing price of the previous full day of trading.

• If it drops at 3:00 on a Wednesday (when the market is open), I'll use the closing price from the day before (Tuesday).

• If it drops at 7:00 on a Wednesday (after the market is closed), I'll use the closing price from that same day.

Two weeks: I'll resolve this at the end of the trading day two calendar weeks after the model is released, or after the final trading day after two weeks.

• If it's released on Wednesday, May 1, I will close this market at the end of the trading day on Wednesday, May 15.

• If it releases on Saturday, May 4, I will close this market at the end of the trading day on Friday, May 17 (since there is no point waiting around Saturday).

Stock price:

I will compare the starting stock price with the closing stock price. If the stock price is higher, this market resolves as yes. If the stock price is lower, this market resolves as no.