Valentin Golev's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.53
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Valentin Golev bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?NOṀ50
- Would FTX US be solvent if it was all that existed? ie does it have more assets than debts as a single entity?NOṀ20
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%