Will I increase my total portfolio from 1000 to 1200 in 7 days?
19
100Ṁ3478
resolved Feb 27
Resolved
NO
I wont buy M. This is comparing the total portfolio statistic shown on the Your Trades page. Some meta: I stuck 500 in this pool so trading on this pool also affects the number. Feb 20, 12:05pm: for the pedants: 1200 *or more* means YES. Feb 28, 7:02am: Final result: https://ibb.co/P9MyT3s The low result shown is a direct result of trading in this market and thus Manifold calculating that I am doing badly.
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Martin was already 98 over as of 3 days ago, and I trust him to resolve this question in the spirit of what he was really asking, vs as a rugpull to get more fake money.
You can buy YES in a large market at low probability such as https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president , which deflates your portfolio, then resolve this market NO, then sell the YES.
I cant burn money! Losing it on purpose is actually a challenge!
But if enough people bet on NO, you'll do nothing and resolve this as YES. Basically you can spend a small amount of money to choose the outcome of this market. It's a rugpull.
If enough people bet on YES here, you can make a profit by giving away some of your money and resolving this to NO.
@Yev, sorry just saw the question before I made these trades as a sort of experiment. See this https://ibb.co/wcvp4vv, which says $M1298 portfolio and 428/622/553 respective payouts. Waiting until close date to see if I have $M1200+ then.
And can you post the total value of your current portfolio, as well as payout if YES/NO/PROB for this question?
Will this resolve positively as soon as you reach $1200, or do you have to wait until close date?
However the running probability affects my Payout at X% which feeds into the total portfolio prior to resolution. Or in simple terms, if I am doing bad in this pool, it does affect the portfolio amount. Hope that makes sense.
That is correct @Gurkenglas.
You resolve according to your total portfolio *before* you resolve this, right?

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