There are rumours that police officers rescued their own kids before trying to stop the shooter: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/officers-rescued-own-children-texas/ This question resolves yes if I find a solid confirmation that at least one Uvalde police officer got their kid out of the school (and no otherwise). Merely getting their kid out of the school as part of evacuating a whole classroom would not be enough for this to resolve yes. Actions by off-duty law enforcement would not count either.
Close date updated to 2023-06-27 11:59 pm
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@traders I think that we have probably gotten all the evidence we are going to get on this by now, and it looks like it should resolve no. Anyone disagree?
Re-opening this as we have not really gotten anything conclusive.
I see a few ways to resolve this:
No, insufficient evidence to conclude that it happened therefore it probably did not
N/A we don't know either way, and won't find out
PROB: The result is uncertain but unlikely. (If I do this, I probably use the 9% value that the market is currently at to avoid manipulation after the decision.)
Leave the market open until we find out something more concrete
Any suggestions on how to handle it?
@UnconditionalProbability I have noticed the occasional article about other investigations about this, so it is not impossible that we eventually get more concrete information.