This market predicts which political group the next French prime minister will come from if François Bayrou loses the confidence vote on September 8, 2025.

The French National Assembly is divided into three main blocs: the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) with approximately 180 seats, Macron's centrist Ensemble coalition with about 160 seats, the far-right National Rally (RN) with around 140 seats, and The Republicans (LR) with about 40 seats.

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to the political affiliation of the next appointed prime minister of France. If no new prime minister is appointed by December 31, 2025, the market resolves to N/A.

Resolution Source: Official announcements from the Élysée Palace (https://www.elysee.fr) or major French news sources.