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Resolves NO

For a Democrat to win 350 EVs, assuming they win every state Biden won in 2020:

• Win Texas plus any one of Ohio, North Carolina, or Florida, or Texas plus Iowa plus any other state or district

• Win Florida plus Ohio, or Florida plus North Carolina plus any other state or district

• Win North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, ME-02, NE-01, *and* Kansas

For a Republican to win 350 EVs, assuming they win every state Trump won in 2016:

• Win Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, NE-02, and all of: ME-AL, Virginia, and Colorado.

Now let's do some math as I show my assumptions here.

If Dems win TX; Dems win one of OH, NC, FL = 100% - [Rs win all three if Dems win TX] (0.75 x 0.3 x 0.6 = 13%) = 87%

If Dems win TX but lose OH, NC, and FL; Dems win IA (50%) plus any other EV (100% - [Rs win all of NE-01, ME-02, KS, AK] (0.75 x 0.6 x 0.8 x 0.6 = 22%) = 78%) = 39% of 12% = 5%

P(D_350 if D_TX) = 92%

If Dems lose TX but win FL; Dems win OH = 25%

If Dems lose TX and OH but win FL; Dems win NC (70%) plus any other EV (100% - [Rs win all of IA, ME-02, NE-01, AK, KS] (0.9 x 0.8 x 0.95 x 0.8 x 0.95 = 52%) = 34% of 75% = 26%

P(D_350 if D_FL and R_TX) = 51%

If Dems lose TX and FL; Dems win 350 EVs = chance Dems win ALL of NC, OH, IA, ME-02, NE-01, KS = 0.35 x 0.2 x 0.15 x 0.2 x 0.05 x 0.1 = 0%

P(D_350 if R_FL and R_TX) = 0%

If Rs win every state Trump won in 2016; Rs win 350 EVs = chance Rs win ALL of MN, NV, NM, NH, NE-02, ME-AL, VA, CO = 0.2 x 0.8 x 0.35 x 0.3 x 0.25 x 0.05 x 0.05 x 0.01 = 0%

P(R_350) = 0%

P(D_TX) = 15%

P(R_TX and D_FL) = 7.5%

P(R_TX and R_FL) = 77.5%

P(D_350) = 0.15(0.92) + 0.075(0.51) + 77.5(0) = 0.176 is roughly 17.5%. P(R_350) = 0.

I feel like this market should be below 20%, and I'm gonna put some mana on it once I have more mana to spend.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-Presidential-Election-Results-1788863

Last happened in 2008.

Wouldn't be surprised if 500 votes and 200% turnout for biden.