Will the US win more than a third of all gold medals won in the swimming events at the 2024 Summer Olympics?
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There are 37 swimming events at the 2024 Summer Olympics. If the US wins gold in at least 13 of these 37 events, then this market will resolve to YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics, there's 37 events, so more than 1/3 means at least 13. The US has 4 of 27, they need 9 of the last 10. And they have no one in the final for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_100_metre_butterfly, so they'd have to sweep the rest.
Not happening.