Will the US win more than a third of all gold medals won in the swimming events at the 2024 Summer Olympics?
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There are 37 swimming events at the 2024 Summer Olympics. If the US wins gold in at least 13 of these 37 events, then this market will resolve to YES.
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Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics, there's 37 events, so more than 1/3 means at least 13. The US has 4 of 27, they need 9 of the last 10. And they have no one in the final for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_100_metre_butterfly, so they'd have to sweep the rest.
Not happening.