Will the margin in the popular vote in the 2024 election be larger than any individual 3rd party's vote share?
Basic
10
Ṁ968resolved Dec 16
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Specifically the presidential election.
For example, if the candidate coming first gets 47% of the vote, and the candidate coming second gets 46% of the vote, if there is a 3rd party candidate that gets 1.01% of the vote then this market resolves NO, and if that candidate gets 0.99% of the vote and there is no other 3rd party with a higher vote share, this market resolves YES.
Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 64% or larger?
13% chance
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
2% chance
Will third-party candidates receive 5% or more of the presidential vote in 2024?
1% chance
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 62% or larger?
97% chance
Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024?
1% chance
Will a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
35% chance
Will the Democratic candidate's popular vote exceed Republican candidate's popular vote in 2024 Presidential election?
1% chance
Will a single independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election?
1% chance
How large is the (optimal) voter margin for the US 2024 Presidential Election?