Will the margin in the popular vote in the 2024 election be larger than any individual 3rd party's vote share?
Basic
4
แน93Nov 11
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Specifically the presidential election.
For example, if the candidate coming first gets 47% of the vote, and the candidate coming second gets 46% of the vote, if there is a 3rd party candidate that gets 1.01% of the vote then this market resolves NO, and if that candidate gets 0.99% of the vote and there is no other 3rd party with a higher vote share, this market resolves YES.
Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve.
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