Will Palestine win an Olympic medal at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
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200Ṁ2328resolved Aug 8
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The Palestine Olympic Committee has been recognized by the International Olympic Committee since 1995. However, a Palestinian athlete representing Palestine has not managed to win a medal at any Olympic Games to this point.
If an sportsperson representing Palestine wins any medal in any event at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, this market will resolve YES. If this does not happen, this market will resolve NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Politics aside, worth noting that Jordan - a much more stable place with three or four times the population and similar demographics - has only ever won three Olympic medals (total). So just based on that you'd expect<1 Palestinian medal total, which gets you in the neighborhood of 5% chance of a medal per Olympics.