Tripp Lyons's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.53
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tripp Lyons bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will Matthew McConaughey continue to be employed by Salesforce at the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will there be a video explaining "rationalussy" on Youtube before 2024?YESṀ1,000
- Trump created his own NFT. Will the floor price of the Trump Digital Trading Cards NFT collection go below 0.05 ETH before the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000