TriHard's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.24
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when TriHard bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will u/lexfridman make another post OR comment in the r/Destiny subreddit in 2022?YESṀ200
- Last time Destiny met a MAGA lady while he was canvassing and they debated IRL. So the question has to be asked, will Destiny engage in any debates while in Georgia?YESṀ100
- Will there be a major new Russian offensive in Ukraine by February 24?YESṀ50
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%