Trend's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.23
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Trend bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Destiny Be in a call with Adin Ross by March 7th?YESṀ101
- Will xQc beat Forsen 's Minecraft record before May 2023?NOṀ100
- Will The Destiny Video ""SHE'S SO MAD" Personal Attacks Blows Up Calm Debate, Makes Destiny SPEECHLESS" Reach 120k Views By Market Close On February 23rd 2023 At 11:59pm EST?YESṀ100
70%
80%
90%
- Will Destiny's short "Destiny Counters Sam Sorbo's Perfect Homeschooling" reach 10k views by 3/16 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ201
- Will Destiny's short "Destiny Stumps Adin Ross In Andrew Tate Debate" reach 100k views by 3/15 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ200
- Will Destiny's LNOD video debating Vikram get 100k views by Feb 18th?YESṀ146
95%
- Will Destiny fly to London for JustPearlyThings Andrew Tate podcast next week?YESṀ1,155
- Will Vaush's video "Will Dark Brandon Destroy TikTok Once And For All?" reach 50k views or more by 3/11 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ600
- Will Destiny's short "Pearl Shocks Destiny, Leaves Sneako Speechless" reach 100k views by 3/16 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ500
97%
- Will Destiny's video "FD Signifier Runs From Trans Question After Asking Kidology A Trans Question | DESTINY REACTS" reach 80k views or more by 3/05 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ1,015
- Will Destiny's clip "Adin Ross Defends Andrew Tate Against Destiny" reach 10k views by 3/14 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ807
- Will Vaush's video "Arnold Schwarzenegger's Based Message About Anti-Semitism" reach 70k views by 3/16 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ700