Resolves to TSLA’s closing price on Google Finance on the last trading day of the month

Check out the dashboard for more Tony's Stock Markets

# 🏅 Top traders

# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|

1 | Ṁ264 | |

2 | Ṁ166 | |

3 | Ṁ47 | |

4 | Ṁ40 | |

5 | Ṁ35 |

@brianwang News is deal to allow FSD (supervised) in China. Why does this make so much difference? Surely this would come if it gets good enough?

@ChristopherRandles Virtually none of the analysts and institutions have priced in a significant FSD revenue stream. They roll it into car revenue and profits. But FSD even with price cuts is equal to the profits of a whole car. $7k per car profit. $8k FSD price or $1200 per year sub for 6 years to get full car profit. FSD has not been authorized in China. 1.5M Tesla cars in China if they went to 20% adoption rate that would be 300k sales. $360M in added profit that repeats every year and grows by another 150k/year sales or more with new vehicle adoptions. $360M in 2024, $550M in 2025, $800M in 2026 and that is they do not keep improving FSD to make it better, safer and more comfortable. That is 1.5% more margin in 2024 and growing by 1-2% every year. Over half of the worlds EV are sold in China and there are 40+ companies there. Now any of them can sign a software, FSD, robotaxi deal (plus Didi and several other Uber equivalents). Once the licensing wave starts that is not revenue until 2-4 years out but it means every analyst must model all-non Tesla cars as possible FSD profits for Tesla. What percentage do a deal with Tesla, what percentage buy Tesla FSD and Tesla hardware to make it work and Tesla operating system software to make it work? 10% of all new cars would be 6-8 million cars/year worth of car profits each year. If subscriptions would be 1 million extra car profits. If the prices do not go up with better versions. IF supervised FSD is shown to be 10-20X safer than without, half of all drivers needing to get an FSD/insurance bundle to make things safer would be 50% adoption. IF the supervised FSD data in China showed 10-20X more safety then China government could mandate Tesla FSD on all cars (Tesla and non-Tesla), this would be 25-30 million cars per year.