How positive will the Steam reviews be for the new Factorio expansion?
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Plus
33
Ṁ4978
resolved Nov 21
Resolved
YES
Overwhelmingly positive
Resolved
YES
Very positive or better
Resolved
YES
Mostly positive or better
Resolved
YES
Mixed or better
Resolved
YES
Mostly negative or better

You can follow the development of Factorio: Space Age on their blog

Results are cumulative, so if the reviews were to be “Very Positive”, all resolve YES except ”Overwhelmingly Positive”.

The current close date is a placeholder, once the expansion launches I’ll change it to be 30 days after the release date. If there’s <500 reviews when I check, the close date will be extended until there is a large enough sample.

Heres a chart of how the Steam review categories work. This is just for reference, the market will resolve based on the text, not the % positive.

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Ṁ1,000
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Ended up being bananas close - 95.066% positive. 4 more negative reviews would have pushed it down to 94.979% (Very Positive territory)

Close date needs to be extended now if you want people to be able to keep betting.

Vanilla game has 97% positive reviews, and the 3% who rated negative are unlikely to purchase an expansion. It's clear from the friday updates that they've put a lot of time, effort, and thought into Space Age, and general customer loyalty/goodwill is very high. It's certainly possible the expansion will be meaningfully controversial enough to get 5% of those expressing explicit opinions to disapprove, but we all just want more official factorioand as long as it isn't a marked departure from their usual fastidious design (and it shouldn't be) this should be Overwhelmingly Positive like the base game.

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