What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on February 1?
Mini
7
Ṁ330resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
On February 1, I will choose a random real number between 0 and 10, and the market resolves to YES if the random number is less than Biden's approval rating minus 35, and NO otherwise. The approval rating used will be 538's: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/.
Jan 21, 4:40pm: 538 currently shows a 41.9% approval rating. If it doesn't change, the market will resolve YES with probability 69%.
#shortterm #politics #Biden #USA
For randomness, I'll use random.org, with a seed consisting of the first 64 characters of the New York Times's first tweet after this market closes, e.g. https://www.random.org/decimal-fractions/?num=1&dec=20&col=1&format=html&rnd=id.Thierry+Mugler%2C+the+genre-busting+French+designer+who+dominated.
Feb 1: Biden's approval rating is 41.7%. The NYT tweeted https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1488376594913587200 at midnight, so I'm resolving the market according to https://www.random.org/decimal-fractions/?num=1&dec=20&col=1&format=html&rnd=id.Noise+and+chaos+reign+at+the+heart+of+the+Milky+Way+galaxy+%E2%80%94+or
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