Tom Goring's calibration
Grade: C-, Score: -8.26
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tom Goring bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
95%
- Will Destiny.gg officially partner with Manifold Markets by February 15th 2023?YESṀ100
- Destiny will reach 15000 live viewers at some point between the creation of this poll and the end of the yearYESṀ10
- Destiny will reach 15000 live viewers at some point between the creation of this poll and the end of the yearYESṀ10