Tom Cohen's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.67
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tom Cohen bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
- Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2024?NOโแน100
- A defendant in a felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023YESโแน10
- Will Manifold be the subject of external controversy involving at least 100,000 people by the end of 2023?NOโแน10
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?YESโแน1,000
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESโแน1,000
- Will I be convinced that changing to an attractive female persona on manifold is at least moderately beneficial?YESโแน100
90%
95%