I will resolve this according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
(PLEASE note that if the price hits 35.000,00$ and goes back down it will be resolved as YES)
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Increased Regulation: Many countries have introduced strict regulations regarding the trading and use of cryptocurrencies. This has made it more difficult for investors and regular users to acquire and use Bitcoin.
Market Saturation: As Bitcoin's popularity has grown, the speed at which new investors enter the market may be slowing.
Rising Competition: The emergence of other cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies has potentially diverted the attention of investors
Increased Regulation: Many countries have introduced strict regulations regarding the trading and use of cryptocurrencies. This has made it more difficult for investors and regular users to acquire and use Bitcoin.
Market Saturation: As Bitcoin's popularity has grown, the speed at which new investors enter the market may be slowing.
Rising Competition: The emergence of other cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies has potentially diverted the attention of investors.
Increased Regulation: Many countries have introduced strict regulations regarding the trading and use of cryptocurrencies. This has made it more difficult for investors and regular users to acquire and use Bitcoin.
Market Saturation: As Bitcoin's popularity has grown, the speed at which new investors enter the market may be slowing.
Rising Competition: The emergence of other cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies has potentially diverted the attention of investors.
People should stop manipulating these markets by buying Bitcoin 😅
Using the excel formula =+STOCKHISTORY(BTCUSD, initial date,enddate,1), we can have the progression of the price of the bitcoin. In my case analysed the last 5 years until now and with that I decided to look at it as a binomial distribution in the sense that it could go up or down the next day.
Then we can have the approximated probability of success (Increase of the price) and from today until 1 jan 2024 there are 73 trials to do. Then I used =BINOM.INV(1,p,RAND()) to get a simulation of each of the 73 days left. Then I calculated the delta of % per day of the prices and the average of the absolute values of that will be the average % of decrease or increase.
At the end of the simulation, there is 28 day out of the 73 left that the prices surpass 35,000 USD having a simulated value of 36,306 USD for 01/01/2024.
So for me this bet should be YES 👍