Will Russia launch another ICBM or IRBM in 2024?
Plus
53
Ṁ8507Jan 1
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if Russia launches a ICBM or IRBM before Jan 1, 2025
It doesn't have to hit Ukraine. Test launches count, but only if it makes it off the launch pad.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@TimothyBandors Since you use the phrasing "another ICBM" as though there were an ICBM launch you expect to be common knowledge, how do you resolve this if Russia launches another IRBM (such as the one it did on 11/21) instead of an ICBM? Do you mean the October ICBM drills?
@vlads I did not see that it was technically classified as an IRBM instead of ICBM after the fact.
@traders I am going to be adjusting the question as I think the intent of the question was known. Please let me know if anyone objects.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
4% chance
Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024?
40% chance
Will Russia hit Kiev with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in 2024?
9% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test in 2024?
3% chance
Will Russia launch a North Korean satellite by the end of 2024?
19% chance
Will Russia launch an orbital nuclear warhead (Space Nuke) in 2024?
5% chance
Will Russia have a nuclear weapon in Earth orbit in 2024?
2% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine by 2024?
2% chance