Iran does something unbelievable in the next two weeks?

1kṀ3484

Jun 29

17%

chance

ALL

This market will resolve YES if Iran does something that makes me go "Holy Shit!" "What the fuck?!" etc

This includes things like:
Knocking a big building down

Coordinated style assassination of Israeli Government
Nuclear test
Mass Israeli civilian casualty incident

Something that makes even the most skeptical person say "okay, something happened"

This market requires a judgement call, so I will not be placing bets.

~~~~~ignore AI summaries, please~~~~

Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that surprising de-escalatory or diplomatic actions will not count towards a YES resolution. This includes scenarios such as Iran:
- Pleading for peace
- Agreeing to restart talks to give up its nuclear program

Iran

Middle East

Israel-Iran Conflict

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Does is need to be something that shown impressive talent on their part? Or can it be something like bringing down a big building with a missile, by sheer luck?

@AhronMaline Sheer luck counts too. Talent is a factor too

Would giving up / pleading for peace / agreeing to restart "give up nukes talks" count?

@markrode no, probably not

@TimothyBandors the AI clarification for this seems to have interpreted this as any de-escalatory action can never be eligible to resolve yes, which I don’t think was your intention