Louis's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.78
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Louis bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?NOṀ200
- Will the Kerch Strait Bridge (bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2023?NOṀ200
- 18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?NOṀ72
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%