Thomas Kwa's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.45
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Thomas Kwa bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will someone find the prime factorization of the 140 digits number in a week?YESṀ600
- Will someone find the prime factorization of the 140 digits number in a week?YESṀ595
- Will someone commit suicide as a result of instructions/recommendations/insults/suggestions from an AI chatbot by the end of 2024?YESṀ400
95%
97%
99%
- Will someone find the prime factorization of the 140 digits number in a week?YESṀ6,000
- Will our LessWrong post on Goodhart's Law be curated?YESṀ2,566
- By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?YESṀ2,000