@DavidFWatson Are my old comments gone?
My thinking is that the time value is dwindling fast here!
That said, I've been selling a lot lately, not because I think it's too highly priced, but to free up Mana to boost other markets.
@Predictor I'm just trying to clarify what you meant, because I realized I might have misunderstood before lol. Yes or no, Joe Biden dying would resolve this market to YES.
@JS_81 I think theyβll keep him in the position regardless but the most likely reason he would resign would be the same reason he dropped out: aging related health problems and decline. It need not be a grand political strategy if he has some sort of major incident which captures the national conversation for a while, particularly post-election.
I agree it's unlikely to happen before November 5th unless Biden has a health crisis. But afterward, if Harris loses, Biden might be persuaded to let her have a month as the lame-duck president for the sake of historical firsts. And if she wins, Biden might decide he's exhausted by the job anyway.
@GregMister Kamala's polling has been mostly increasing since she jumped in the race. Now she's up to what, D+3.5 or something? All this does is convince me that YES traders are completely out of touch with reality and I shouldn't take the 12% yes probability seriously as an update.
@GregMister What? "Will" implies that decreases will happen in the future, "continue to" implies that they have already been happening in the past. You made two statements, one about the past and present, and one about the future. The one about the future I didn't dispute because I can't see into the future, but the one about the past and present I did dispute, because I can look at a chart.
@LukasTilmann will modifies the phrase "continue to decrease" as in in the future, there will be a point that her polls will continue to decrease. Does that explanation make you less confused and angry?
@GregMister No. I was never angry and I was never confused. I just continue to think that you are not in full command of the English language. If you think that there will be some point in the future where her polls decrease, there's no point in using the word continue here, and using the word "will" does not imply that the start of the polling decrease must be in the future as well, as something happening in the present can continue in the future. Therefore, there's one clear interpretation of the phrase "will continue to" - it's happening now and it will continue to happen.
@GregMister So this week in early October? Maybe a short fuse market would be fun on this prediction.
@LiamZ Just created a somewhat similar market, although I didn't limit it to this week: https://manifold.markets/MugaSofer/will-joe-biden-resign-as-an-october