TheSkeward avatar
closes Jan 1, 2023
Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY?
10%
chance

This market will resolve positively if an official email or announcement from Sundar Pichai or an official Google representative explicitly announces either X% layoffs where X>=5, or X layoffs where X(/#Google employees) >= 0.05. The last public data I'm aware of set the number of Google employees around 160,000, so we'll say that would be layoffs of 8,000 employees.

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Paul avatar
Paul Hobbs
is predicting NO at 32%

At this point with all these fake articles on layoffs, this bet should probably be added to the “free money” group.

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blume
is predicting YES at 31%

@KateTran See my comment below on the similarly sourced Forbes article

Paul avatar
Paul Hobbs
is predicting NO at 31%

@KateTran the headline is inaccurate. It's asking for 6% of workforce to be rated lower than expectations, but that doesn't imply firing all those people.

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blume
is predicting YES at 59%

If anyone's updating on https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/11/21/alphabet-seeks-to-cut-10000-poor-performing-googlers/?sh=3dc33d712704, the article seems to be based on the real-life facts that an investor holding 0.5% of GOOG shares publicly called for layoffs, and that Google's current internal rating system assigns 6% of employees to its bottom two ratings. The rest has no visible source.

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blume
bought Ṁ100 of YES

I honestly think this market is overpriced, but I am holding YES as insurance.

Sjlver avatar

Does this market consider full-time employees only, or also temps, vendors, and contractors?

Paul avatar
Paul Hobbs
is predicting NO at 20%

@Sjlver I would argue that this should count FTEs.