Will Keltham uncover the Conspiracy before they can turn him into a statue for a year?
15
113Ṁ5608
resolved May 21
Resolved
YES
Culture
Glowfic
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ30
2Ṁ18
3Ṁ18
4Ṁ4
5Ṁ3

People are also trading

Sort by:
Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/QTesseract/will-keltham-successfully-identify I think either this one should go up or that one down, but possibly rate of return is low enough that that doesn't make sense at these values to invest even if you would make a profit in expectation since you can make more elsewhere.
The in-universe prediction market is at 90%, and they also know about tropes.
After being linked to this site from the Discord, betting all my free starter M$ on the meta-proposition that, as a rationalist story, this is resolved by a clever thought process culminating in a crisis of faith, instead of by Keltham failing and needing to be rescued.
@EndoviorE All in! I like it
I'm buying disappointed-in-plot-direction insurance.
How does this resolve if he doesn't uncover the conspiracy and they don't statue him?
@MartinRandall I defer to Asmodia's in-story market, if she resolves it non-fraudulently. If she doesn't then my current thinking is NO if he's cooperating with alterCheliax and petrifiable if they wanted, N/A if he's cooperating but not petrifiable like he relocated to Osirion or Asmodeus gave new orders, and YES if he's refusing to work with them.
Dang, I'm not there yet! We need to start implementing spoiler tags in Manifold haha Also quick shill, I built a better visually-designed reader for glowfic: https://share.streamlit.io/akrolsmir/glowflow/main

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy