Will I end up on the Manifold 'most profit' leaderboard by July 4?
13%
chance
Jul 5
M$278 bet
This question will resolve to a YES if I end up being in the top 20 accounts by total profit within the next month (By July 4) Some information for you to take into account: - I've been on Manifold for 7 days so far, and currently have a total profit of M$832. - I'm pretty well-calibrated, and have a track record of making good predictions (this is my first time on a formal prediction market though) - If I see a bet that looks positive EV but am out of M$, I'll purchase more so I can place the bet. - I don't make any insider trades (e.g. I don't bet in my own personal markets, or create markets with poor initial pricing and then participate in them myself) - I'm not directly optimizing for ending up on the leaderboard soon; I'm just aiming to do well long-term. - So far I seem fairly addicted to checking Manifold and placing bets when I seen an opportunity, but that could change over the course of the month. Jun 4, 2:31pm: Just lost M$843 due to a Manifold Markets bug 😞https://manifold.markets/Milli/will-it-be-possible-to-fully-edit-t#HJg0CrupgVqZmckSdjnE Jun 8, 9:43am: I haven't been participating in markets quite as actively, I think since I'm a bit disappointed that my positive trajectory was crushed by a platform bug :( :( I still am looking/participating some though. Jun 26, 1:06pm: I'm back positive (+$M400 profit), but I would guess not on a trajectory to hit top 20! (Am top 8 on the new daily leaderboard, but that doesn't count)
GeorgeVii
George Vii bought M$10 of NO
Sorry to hear about the bug. Did you msg manifold team, maybe they can sort it for you!
0
GeorgeVii
George Vii is betting NO at 32%
Oh I see, it was a market about a "bug". Unfortunate!
0
SG
S G bought M$10 of YES
I believe in you!
0
TedSuzman
@SG Thanks! I tried to set the conditions so it'd be about a 50-50 shot at the start... we'll see!
0