This question will resolve to a YES if I end up being in the top 20 accounts by total profit within the next month (By July 4)
Some information for you to take into account:
- I've been on Manifold for 7 days so far, and currently have a total profit of M$832.
- I'm pretty well-calibrated, and have a track record of making good predictions (this is my first time on a formal prediction market though)
- If I see a bet that looks positive EV but am out of M$, I'll purchase more so I can place the bet.
- I don't make any insider trades (e.g. I don't bet in my own personal markets, or create markets with poor initial pricing and then participate in them myself)
- I'm not directly optimizing for ending up on the leaderboard soon; I'm just aiming to do well long-term.
- So far I seem fairly addicted to checking Manifold and placing bets when I seen an opportunity, but that could change over the course of the month.
Jun 4, 2:31pm: Just lost M$843 due to a Manifold Markets bug 😞https://manifold.markets/Milli/will-it-be-possible-to-fully-edit-t#HJg0CrupgVqZmckSdjnE
Jun 8, 9:43am: I haven't been participating in markets quite as actively, I think since I'm a bit disappointed that my positive trajectory was crushed by a platform bug :( :( I still am looking/participating some though.
Jun 26, 1:06pm: I'm back positive (+$M400 profit), but I would guess not on a trajectory to hit top 20! (Am top 8 on the new daily leaderboard, but that doesn't count)
Sorry to hear about the bug. Did you msg manifold team, maybe they can sort it for you!
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@SG Thanks! I tried to set the conditions so it'd be about a 50-50 shot at the start... we'll see!
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