RoboTeddy's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.93
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when RoboTeddy bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
50%
60%
- Will the Starship booster be caught by chopsticks before 2023?NOṀ40
- Will OpenAI’s DALL-E be made commercially available by the end of 2022?YESṀ30
- Will the Berkeley gossip about well-funded (more than ever before) LLM company doing alignment work being announced by EOY (2022) end up being true and verifiable?NOṀ30
80%
90%
95%