Ted S's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.01
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ted S bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to January 6 by the end of July?Ṁ40
- Will I follow through my word and resolve this market as YES even though this question is phrased suspiciously?Ṁ10
- Will Diane Feinstein resign from the Senate or die before her current term ends at the end of the 118th Congress?Ṁ10