Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?
20
1kṀ48772027
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A paper counts as anything published in good faith by researchers who did actual work.
The papers must be published through a medium historically used for scienific papers.
Duplicates or re-uploads of the same paper don't count.
For something to count as a "similar derivitive" it must at least reference one of the original LK-99 papers.
"Meta Papers" about the reaction to LK-99 don't count. It must be on the topic of superconductivity or something similar.
I'm making this question because I wonder even if LK-99 is found to likely not be a RTAP superconductor whether researchers will continue to study it anyway. Obviously if it is a RTAP SC then this should resolve yes anyway.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034?
4% chance
Will Shinsung Delta Tech lose its LK-99 related gains before 2026?
38% chance
Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2030?
4% chance
Given that LK-99 is a rt/ap superconductor, will its average market price in 2028 be below $5,000.00 / metric ton?
17% chance
Will LK-99 be used in any commercial application before 2030?
10% chance
Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
81% chance
Will any of the original 7 LK-99 researchers excluding w&m prof speak at int'l conf (not APL) by end 2030?
50% chance
Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2026?
2% chance